Trans. Apr 17 2:38 ET (Apr 17 2:38 ET ) The playoffs begin on Saturday, thankfully, which means it’s that lovely time of spring (and it is spring, right? It’s not going to snow again, is it?) when the minds behind Ball Don’t Lie to offer you their thoughts on the upcoming pairings in the first round of the NBA’s postseason.
Kelly Dwyer’s Old Grey Whistle Test
One year ago, the Indiana Pacers and Atlanta Hawks met in a first round series that was ridiculed for his boring play, Indiana’s inability to close out what felt like a lesser Hawks squad, and it’s relegation to the NBA TV end of things rather than a more nationally sponsored showcase.
This … this doesn’t figure to change in 2014.
Indiana, at its best, is a fearsome outfit. The group admirably paid tribute to its own fans and own potential while coming out of the gates swinging last autumn, re-stating a point with both words and play that the team treated home court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference bracket as a priority, an understandable goal considering the outfit’s Game 7 loss in Miami to the Heat in 2013. The Pacers held the NBA’s best record for a goodly chunk of the season’s first half, it more than held its own in both Indianapolis and Miami meetings with the defending champs, and it finished the season with both the top seed in the East, and a 35-6 record at home.
It’s also finished the season on a 23-19 run, hardly a mark befitting a championship contender working with a healthy starting lineup and designs on knocking off the two-time champion Heat. Its offense sunk terribly, its particulars whined and moaned about each other on record to the media, and its top players fell off in ways that made the midseason summations of their respective seasons seem almost laughable in retrospect.
Paul George won’t be battling Kevin Durant and LeBron James for All-NBA honors, much less MVP honors. Lance Stephenson doesn’t feel like much of a fringe All-Star anymore. Roy Hibbert may even lose out to Joakim Noah for Defensive Player of the Year honors, something that seemed unthinkable even a few weeks ago.
And the Atlanta Hawks? They’re not exactly a needed salve, sent from on high to straighten Indiana’s ship.
The Hawks split the season series with Indiana, with one midseason contest working as just the Pacers’ seventh loss in 35 tries, and it’s very much possible that Atlanta’s 107-88 triumph over Indiana from earlier in April acted as the Pacers’ low point. Indiana scored just 23 points in the first half of that contest, and partially as a result Indiana coach Frank Vogel decided to wipe his entire starting five off of the books for the team’s next contest in Milwaukee , a borderline unprecedented move for a team whose status as the top overall seed was still in question.
The Pacers responded with a win over those Bucks, in a way, because they were eventually blown out by the Heat in Miami just two days later. The Hawks are the Hawks, though, one of the worst playoff teams in recent NBA lore, a squad that will have to see everything go right in order to merely take a win or two away from a Pacers team that was just a game away from the NBA Finals last season.
Atlanta enjoyed a marvelous All-Star season from free agent signee Paul Millsap this season, but it will also be working without its best player in the injured Al Horford, led by a point guard in Jeff Teague that has been equal parts fantastic and far below average this year. The group turns the ball over more than any other team in the playoffs (though the Pacers are just one spot ahead of Atlanta), outside of Kyle Korver the team has no reason to rank second in three-pointers attempted this year, and many wondered if the Hawks should have just punted their chance at the eighth seed for basketball reasons , in order to glom onto a lower-end lottery pick.
This is Indiana’s opponent. And though the Pacers will eventually win, all signs point to a struggle. Even if the Pacers sweep the series, things will be close from game to game.
And things will be, unfortunately, quite ugly. So is their combined custom.
Prediction: Pacers in six.
Dan Devine's One Big Question
Every postseason matchup has its own unique set of variables for each team, and prognosticator, to attempt to solve. Here's one that BDL's Dan Devine has been mulling over.
Can the Hawks shoot the Pacers out of their defensive comfort zone?
By now, we know what Frank Vogel wants his team to accomplish on defense. He wants to use the long arms, quick feet, agility and instincts of Paul George, Lance Stephenson and George Hill to track opposing scorers man-to-man, to clog passing lanes, and to short-circuit the ball movement that compromises defenses. He wants to protect the paint and the 3-point line above all else, refusing to help off the corners on dribble penetration and inviting ball-handlers to either pull up for low-percentage midrange jumpers or try to score over 7-foot-2 center Roy Hibbert.
That defense works best when Hibbert, the league's preeminent obstacle, doesn't have to move very far from his dominion. It can be compromised when the opposition forces the plodding pivot to check someone who can shoot from outside accurately enough to make him pay for not staying close by.
We've seen multiple teams deploy this sort of offensive attack against Hibbert — the New York Knicks with now- teammate Chris Copeland , the Phoenix Suns with Markieff Morris , the Miami Heat with Chris Bosh and Udonis Haslem , etc. — and while there's no foolproof way to consistently beat an Indiana defense that's topped the NBA in points allowed per possession two years running, this is one of the few ploys that seems to work with some level of regularity.
Which is why, odd as it sounds, the key to the Hawks toppling the mighty Pacers very well might be a 31-year-old Macedonian rookie named Pero Antic. (He's the 6-foot-11 dude who looks like a pale, tattooed Carlos Boozer .)
Under first-year head coach Mike Budenholzer, the Hawks have become a spread-the-floor-and-bomb-from-deep squad. Led by sharpshooter Kyle Korver, Atlanta's rotation is full of guys willing to fire from deep and able to connect at respectable clips, including front-liners All-Star Paul Millsap, DeMarre Carroll and Mike Scott. And then there's Antic, who came over from Olympiacos this summer and was pressed into duty when Al Horford went down for the season with a torn pectoral muscle .
Antic's game has its detractors, but he fits Budenholzer's spread-and-fire ethos perfectly, and he had two of his best games of the season against these Indiana Pacers — two games, perhaps not coincidentally, that the Hawks won handily. He scored 34 points in two meetings with Indy this season, shooting a scorching 13 for 18 from the field and 6 for 10 from 3-point land, as the Hawks repeatedly used him as a release valve to make Hibbert and the rest of Indiana's bigs pay for staying too close to home.
They found Antic early out of Horns sets with plenty of off-ball screening that confused the defense until, all of a sudden, Antic was casting off:
They had him set screens up top, roll to the rim and flow to the short corner, betting that Hibbert wouldn't follow:
They had him switch it up by popping to the wing after setting his screen:
They had him set off-ball screens for what looked like more threatening action, then pop free:
None of this stuff is especially complicated or intricately designed; it just flows out of what Atlanta runs for primary scoring options like Millsap, Korver and Jeff Teague. That's what makes it so effective, though — you don't tilt your defense to stop Pero Antic like he's Dirk Nowitzki, until he hurts you enough that you must treat him like a credible threat.
Once you do, seams start appearing elsewhere, and you can exploit such openings. As detailed by SB Nation's Mike Prada, one of Atlanta's favorite half-court actions aims to either get Korver an open shot from the midrange area Indian
A look around the league and the web that covers it. It's also important to note that the rotation order and starting nods aren't always listed in order of importance. That's for you, dear reader, to figure out.
C : HoopsAnalyst . Are the 2013-14 Atlanta Hawks the worst eighth playoff seed of the modern era? Somehow, strangely, no. PF : The Detroit News . In contrasting a previous television report, Vincent Goodwill is telling his readers that Grant Hill has no interest taking on a gig as Detroit Pistons general manager. Whatever his interest, anything would be better than Grant Hill slumming on ‘Inside Stuff.’ SF : SB Nation . Holy lord I don’t know where to start just watch this brilliant thing Jon Bois did with Kobe Bryant meeting up with a version of himself from 16 years ago via a video game please watch this. SG : Sports Illustrated . This is Lee Jenkins writing about Joakim Noah, with both of them in their primes. Assuming Lee Jenkins will ever move out of his writing prime. You should probably read this. PG : Minnesota Star-Tribune . As we discussed last week , we’ve probably watched Rick Adelman coach his final NBA game. 6th : SB Nation . Yes, it’s true that Carmelo Anthony is frustrated with the New York Knicks. Anyone should be, after a season like that. This is also a man who would have to turn down a five-year, $129 million contract to play for a storied franchise in a wonderful city under Phil Jackson. It’s April. We’ll come back to Carmelo in July. 7th : New York Post . Full disclosure: Clarence Gaines Jr. is the uncle of one of my best friends, but it’s not bias that is influencing me in telling Knicks fans that he is a scout and executive that can truly help Phil Jackson in so many beneficial ways as he works toward his first offseason as Knicks personnel boss. 8th : Grantland . Zach Lowe represents us silly League Pass folk in breaking down all the wonderful and not-so-passable things about the NBA’s 2013-14 regular season. A lovely read that I’ll be giving another look-over, as you should too. 9th : Hardwood Paroxysm . Jack Winter echoes what the three of us talked about earlier on Thursday: Andrew Bogut will be terribly missed by the Golden State Warriors in this postseason. 10th : Akron Beacon-Journal . Kyrie Irving gives the sort of milquetoast responses you’d respect about his future in Cleveland after yet another frustrating year with the Cavaliers.
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Kelly Dwyer is an editor for Ball Don't Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at KDonhoops@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @KDonhoops
CHARLOTTE Bulls head coach stayed true to his word in the regular-season finale Wednesday night, a 91-86 loss in overtime to the Bobcats at Time Warner Cable Arena. The coach said he wouldnt cut back playing time for his players and he didnt, evidenced by Jimmy Butler playing 47 minutes and 55 seconds in the defeat, one of three players Mike Dunleavy Jr. and All-Star center Joakim Noah were the others to log more than 40 minutes of action. Once you start resting guys, sometimes they get out of rhythm and for us right now, I think our team is well rested, Thibodeau explained. Before the game, [Thibodeau] was like, Be prepared to win.
The Joakim Noah Show had another interesting episode hit the airwaves Wednesday night.The entertaining Bulls center was asked a question to sum up the entire regular season, but the reporter was wearing a Florida State hat.
Kemba Walker scored eight of his 22 points in overtime to help the Charlotte Bobcats defeat the Chicago Bulls 91-86 Wednesday night and finish the season with eight wins in their final nine games. Al Jefferson added 10 points and 18 rebounds for Charlotte, and Chris Douglas-Roberts finished with 13 points after being held scoreless for the first three quarters. Walker grabbed the loose ball and raced the length of the court for a layup that gave the Bobcats an 88-81 lead with 1 minute left. Joakim Noah finished with 14 points and 13 rebounds for Chicago, Carlos Boozer added 14 points and 11 rebounds, and Augustin scored 17 points.